Does intervention by central banks in the currency markets, with a view to keeping the home currency weak and help the exports, constitute a subsidy? Some US legislators think so.
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
Forex dealers said besides strong demand for the American currency from importers, capital outflows mainly weighed on the domestic currency.
Lower crude oil prices and a rally in domestic equities restricted the losses to some extent, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened weak at 79.50 per dollar.
The rupee strengthened by 36 paise to 54.48 against the US dollar in early trade today at the Interbank Foreign Exchange on selling of American currency by exporters and banks.
The NSE Nifty after shuttling between 10,441.90 and 10,341.90, ended 6.15 points, or 0.06 per cent down at 10,380.45.
The rupee on Tuesday rose by 11 paise to 56.90 against the US dollar in early trade at the Interbank Foreign Exchange market as the American currency weakened against euro and other currencies overseas.
India's exports in April jumped nearly three-fold to USD 30.63 billion from USD 10.36 billion in the same month last year, according to government data released on Friday.
Under the trade agreement between India and Iran, the West Asian country can pay India in rupees for its imports against oil exports to India, which New Delhi pays for in Iranian rial.
Increased selling of the dollar by banks and exporters amid sustained foreign capital inflows supported the rupee.
Forex dealers said strengthening of the euro against the dollar overseas and a higher opening in the domestic equity market also supported the local currency.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) outstanding net forward purchases of US dollars fell by more than 50 per cent from the last quarter of FY22 to $30.86 billion in the June quarter (Q1). The net forwards position was at $65.79 billion at the end of the last fiscal year. The purchases fell by $18.33 billion in June as the central bank intervened in both the forwards and the spot market in order to protect the rupee from excessive depreciation in the face of a widening trade deficit.
Dulat, however, pointedly said engagement with Pakistan has always been "influenced by domestic politics".
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said in the wake of appreciating US dollar, the movement of rupee has remained least disruptive as compared to its peers, and the size of foreign exchange reserve is comfortable. On a financial year basis (from April to October 2022), the rupee has appreciated by 3.2 per cent in real terms, even as several major currencies have depreciated, he said while announcing the latest set of bi-monthly monetary policy. "The story of the rupee has been one of India's resilience and stability," the Governor said while pointing out that the appreciation of the US dollar this year, which precipitated large-scale depreciation of all major global currencies including the Indian rupee, has drawn wide attention.
The rupee depreciated 40 paise to an all-time low of 81.93 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday as the strengthening of the American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and significant foreign fund outflows sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 81.90 against the greenback, then fell to 81.93, registering a fall of 40 paise over its previous closing.
Nepal's decision to ban the import of non-essential items amid depleting forex reserves may hit Indian exports. The country's central bank - Nepal Rastra Bank - last week instructed commercial banks not to open letters of credit (LCs) for importing non-essential items. This is to prevent further decline of the country's foreign exchange reserves. However, it has not issued any formal communication yet.
The rupee on Tuesday recovered from its all-time intra day low of 77.79 to close higher by 7 paise on a stellar rally in domestic stock markets. After opening lower at 77.67, the local unit plunged further to its all-time intra-day low of 77.79 due to a spike in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data. However, a strong rally in domestic equities helped the rupee rebound and close at 77.48 (provisional), showing net gains of 7 paise over the last close of 77.55. The forex market was closed on Monday on account of Buddha Purnima.
Investors are anxious over the US-China trade tension, a sharp devaluation in yuan and uncertainty over Kashmir issue.
The accused -- Lemos, his wife Valany and Ryan D'Souza -- were convicted on Sunday by the Dubai Misdemeanours Court in the 515 cases filed against them
A global association for regulated funds that is leading efforts to shorten the settlement cycle for US equities has reached out to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) with a plea to extend the T+1 implementation timeline by 18 months. The short transition period of four months does not provide foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), their services providers, and broker dealers sufficient time to make the necessary operational and compliance changes to accommodate a shorter settlement cycle, ICI Global said in its letter addressed to Sebi chairman Ajay Tyagi written a few days back. ICI Global carries out the international work of the Investment Company Institute (ICI), a global association for regulated funds, whose members manage assets of more than $42 trillion.
The rupee plunged 20 paise to close at an all-time low of 78.13 against the US dollar on Monday, as a lacklustre trend in domestic equities and stronger greenback overseas weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said weak Asian currencies and persistent foreign capital outflows were the other major factors that dragged the local unit down. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 78.20 and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.02 and a low of 78.29 against the US dollar.
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The Indian currency had hit record low of 57.32 against a dollar in June last year.
Forex dealers said besides robust month-end demand for the American currency from oil importers, dollar's strength against its rival currencies on expectations of rising interest rates amid lingering Sino-US trade tensions, weighed on the domestic currency.
Equity benchmark Sensex ended 127 points higher on Friday, primarily led by gains in auto, metal and power sector stocks amid positive cues from global markets.
Jet fuel prices on Monday were hiked by a steep 5.3 per cent - the tenth straight increase this year -- to an all-time high, in line with a surge in global energy prices. The price of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) -- the fuel that helps aeroplanes fly -- was hiked by Rs 6,188.25 per kilolitre, or 5.29 per cent, to Rs 1,23,039.71 per kl (Rs 123 per litre) in the national capital, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. This is the 10th straight increase in jet fuel prices this year.
Forex traders said a stronger dollar also dragged the rupee down.
Investors and companies should brace for higher commodity prices over the next few weeks in the backdrop of Russian troops attacking Ukraine on Thursday. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden threatened new sanctions against Russia for an act of aggression against Ukraine. All this, analysts believe, can push prices of key commodities such as crude oil, ammonia, urea, potash, and phosphates higher.
Assume that the rupee will trend lower over the next 10 years as India increases overseas sovereign exposures, and your long-term asset allocation should be geared to deal with this trend, suggests Devangshu Datta
Rajapaksa's decision was to ensure public security and maintain essential services so as to ensure a smooth functioning of the country, the presidential media division said.
Tata Steel was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying nearly 4 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, M&M, Bajaj Finserv and Reliance Industries. NSE Nifty advanced 33.95 points to a fresh high of 16,563.05.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday exuded confidence that inflation would further decline and the government is on track to meet its budgetary target for deficit and said that there is no fear of stagflation in India. Replying to the debate on first batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants 2022-23 in Lok Sabha, the finance minister said inflation has come down and it is now in the tolerable band of the RBI. Inflation has been declining since April 2022 and it is declining further, she said.
'When the gold price rises rapidly, India's physical gold market remains on standby.'
Overall forex market sentiment suffered a sudden reversal of fortune contrary to expectation largely moving in line with local equities, reversing all early strong gains.
Indian rupee, which earlier this week touched an all-time low, is likely to remain under pressure and may test new levels as a fallout of the US Federal Reserve indicating more interest rate hikes, experts said. The aggressive rate hikes will dampen demand and increase the possibility of a recession in the US. This could accelerate the pace of capital outflows, weaken the rupee and raise the threat of imported inflation.
India's stock exchanges have decided to jointly introduce the T+1 settlement cycle in phases from February 25, beginning with the bottom 100 stocks by market capitalisation. From March 2022, on the last Friday (or the immediate next trading day) of every month, the next 500 stocks from the bottom will be subject to T+1 settlement. The phase-wise implementation is expected to give all market participants, including foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), ample time to shift to the shorter cycle. The settlement cycle represents the time period within which the stock exchanges have to settle security transactions.
Strong month-end demand for the US currency mainly from oil importers along with currency futures expiry related purchases predominantly weighed heavily on the forex market and haunted investor sentiment.
On Tuesday, the rupee had declined marginally by 3 paise to 66.03.
